Using Monte-Carlo approach for analysis of quantitative and qualitative operation of reservoirs system with regard to the inflow uncertainty

Abstract

Operation of dams’ reservoir systems, as one of the main sources of our country’s surface water, has a particular importance. Since the operational hydrological and meteorological parameters of water budget in reservoir systems’ operation are indefinite, in order to choose a comprehensive and optimal policy for the operation analysis of these systems, water inflow is considered as the most important hydrological parameter in an uncertain reservoir system. Monte-Carlo approach was applied to study the water inflow impact on the performance of both single and multi-reservoir systems. Doing so, artificial statistics for monthly inflow time series of each production reservoir system and the probable distributions of time, quantitative reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency standards were analyzed in five different simulation and optimization models as the system’s efficiency criteria. The reason for choosing Karun 3, Karun 4, and Khersan 1 dams was the need for three dams to be setup as reservoir systems in both serial and parallel forms. The results of the operation criteria analysis indicated that for the operation of the whole system, the best quantitative reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency values were in the optimized single-reservoir model, and the best time reliability value was in the optimized multi-reservoir model. Moreover, the inflow uncertainty had the minimum impact on the quantitative reliability criteria and the maximum impact on the resiliency criteria.