Abstract

Modern speciation theory has greatly benefited from a variety of simple mathematical models focusing on the conditions and patterns of speciation and diversification in the presence of gene flow. Unfortunately the application of general theoretical concepts and tools to specific ecological systems remains a challenge. Here we apply modeling tools to better understand adaptive divergence of whitefish during the postglacial period in lakes of northern Fennoscandia. These lakes harbor up to three different morphs associated with the three major lake habitats: littoral, pelagic, and profundal. Using large-scale individual-based simulations, we aim to identify factors required for in situ emergence of the pelagic and profundal morphs in lakes initially colonized by the littoral morph. The importance of some of the factors we identify and study - sufficiently large levels of initial genetic variation, size- and habitat-specific mating, sufficiently large carrying capacity of the new niche - is already well recognized. In addition, our model also points to two other factors that have been largely disregarded in theoretical studies: fitness-dependent dispersal and strong predation in the ancestral niche coupled with the lack of it in the new niche(s). We use our theoretical results to speculate about the process of diversification of whitefish in Fennoscandia and to identify potentially profitable directions for future empirical research.

Highlights

  • Modern speciation theory has greatly benefited from a variety of simple mathematical models focusing on the conditions and patterns of speciation and diversification in the presence of gene flow

  • When we look across the entire parameter space, the majority of lakes fall into four different compositions of morphs present: littoral morph only, pelagic morph only, littoral and pelagic morphs, and all three morphs present (Tables 3 and 4)

  • Lakes with only the littoral morph are common in Fennoscandia[24]

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Summary

Introduction

Modern speciation theory has greatly benefited from a variety of simple mathematical models focusing on the conditions and patterns of speciation and diversification in the presence of gene flow. Most of this work has focused on models of speciation aims for both generality and mathematical simplicity These models are very useful and insightful in uncovering general rules and patterns of speciation, adaptive radiation, and biological diversification. Their generality almost necessarily implies that these models are very difficult to apply to any particular systems and species studied by empirical biologists. The process of building a mathematical model even for a well-studied empirical system usually reveals the lack of biological understanding or crucial empirical data needed to make appropriate modeling assumptions or specify parameters This can greatly stimulate further empirical work to remove these limitations

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