Using machine learning to predict student science achievement based on science curriculum type in TIMSS 2019

Abstract

ABSTRACT Most educational systems use either an integrated or a separated science curriculum. However, it is unclear which of these science curricula benefits students more author and existing research provides insufficient information about the implementation details of the curriculum employed. Therefore, this study compares the effects of two science curricula on students’ science literacy, drawing on socio-ecological theory and employing educational data mining techniques. Results from Grade 8 Science students in 44 countries sampled in the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 showed that (1) the integrated curricula benefitted students marginally more than the separated curricula; (2) curriculum type was not essential in directly predicting students’ academic performance; and (3) random forest outperformed linear regression, lasso regression, decision trees, and neural networks in predicting student science achievement. This study advances our understanding of the predictors of student science performance, demonstrates that machine learning techniques can be applied successfully to examine curriculum effects, and provides directions for implementing integrated science curricula.