Using machine learning to identify indicators of rare earth element enrichment in sedimentary strata with applications for metal prospectivity

Abstract

Rare earth elements (REE), classified as critical minerals which are crucial for clean energy technologies, face soaring demand. While economic deposits are found in limited geologic environments including carbonatites and ion-adsorption clays, unconventional, secondary sources such as those from sedimentary basins could hold potential to meet this increased demand. Coal and its associated combustion by-products, phosphorites, oil sands tailings, and formation waters have all garnered interest for REE recovery, yet they remain significantly underexplored. Accordingly, new tools for data analysis and optimization such as machine learning can assist in mineral prospectivity, with these tools being subject to rapid proliferation in the Earth sciences.This work leverages compositional data analysis principles and machine learning to probe geochemical relationships and predict REE abundances in sedimentary lithologies using unsupervised (correlation, principal component, and cluster analysis) and supervised (regression, support vector machine, random forest, and boosting) machine learning models. These three unsupervised models display similar results, with REE typically being associated with incompatible elements (e.g., Th, Nb, and Hf). Gradient boosting, Adaboost, and Random Forest had the highest performance for predicting REE concentrations, with Th and P commonly being the most important predictor variables. Identifying geochemical indicators of REE enrichment that may be used to assist in discovering potentially exploitable REE resources based on existing data, as well as increasing the understanding of metal behaviour in sedimentary systems, is a step forward in understanding novel secondary and unconventional REE sources. Although REE concentrations from these sources are generally lower than primary ore deposits, the amount of available feedstock, potentially simpler, cheaper, and less environmentally taxing extraction processes, and the added benefit of remediating waste streams and contributing to the circular economy make these sources alluring.