Using Linear and ARIMA Model to Exanimate and Forecast the Grade Inflation Phenomenon in the University of Wisconsin-Madison

Abstract

Nowadays, in US universities, A stands for average, B stands for below average, and C stands for choose another major, but B used to be appreciated, and A used to be attainable only to those that are either hardworking or talented, or both. To investigate the ongoing increase of average GPA since decades ago of US universities, this paper utilizes linear and ARIMA model to forecast future average GPA of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This paper then successfully examines the existence of grade inflation in the University of Wisconsin-Madison and concludes that at least in the near future of 5 years, the average GPA will continue to grow. After considering results of former researchers, this paper provides three possible solutions to mitigate grade inflation: an increase in exam difficulty, a revised SETs system, and a fixed distribution of grades. Hopefully this paper will contribute to stop grades from losing its value and university transforming from the place to learn to the place to get a degree.