Using Haplotypes to Reconstruct Ancient Population Dynamics; a User Guide for Historians

Abstract

Recently, the analysis of haplotypes has garnered a lot of attention in both popular media, from companies such as 23andMe, and in scientific journal publications. Haplotypes, which can be thought of as DNA patterns in the chromosome, may remain unchanged for centuries and are therefore a promising new method for tracing lineages. This method could provide valuable new insights into population dynamics, specifically regarding ancient populations. However, a crucial issue is that historians are not trained to evaluate this sort of evidence, yet many publications in prestigious journals such as Nature and Science are making historical claims based on haplotype analysis. When analyzing this data, a few key assumptions must be made. Of particular concern are logical circularities in hypothesis generation and in sampling strategy. This is to say, that the hypotheses are often not based on "scientific" data, but are instead drawn from often outdated historical assumptions. These same assumptions then drive a sampling strategy that guide the study to a conclusion in line with the hypothesis. What is the professional historian to do? Proposed is a common-sense user guide for a non-specialist to evaluate the quality of the data and claims made with it. Several case studies will be examined from this perspective that show both the strengths and weaknesses of this new source of historical and archaeological evidence.