Using grey models for forecasting China’s growth trends in renewable energy consumption

Abstract

This study primarily investigated the forecasting of the growth trend in renewable energy consumption in China. Only 22 samples were acquired for this study because renewable energy is an emerging technology. Because historical data regarding renewable energy were limited in sample size and the data were not normally distributed, forecasting methods used for analyzing large amounts of data were unsuitable for this study. Grey system theory is applied to system models involving incomplete information, unclear behavioral patterns, and unclear operating mechanisms. In addition, it can be used to perform comprehensive analyses, observe developments and changes in systems, and conduct long-term forecasts. The most prominent feature of this theory is that a minimum of only four data sets are required for establishing a model and that making stringent assumptions regarding the distribution of the sample population is not required. However, to address the limitations of previous studies on grey forecasting and to enhance the forecasting accuracy, this study adopted the grey model (1, 1) [GM(1, 1)] and the nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (1, 1) [(NGBM)] for theoretical derivation and verification. Subsequently, the two models were compared with a regression analysis model to determine the models’ predictive accuracy and goodness of fit. According to the indexes of mean absolute error, mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error, NGBM(1, 1) exhibited the most accurate forecasts, followed by GM(1, 1) and regression analysis model. The results indicated that the modified NGBM(1, 1) grey forecasting models demonstrated superior predictive abilities among the compared models.