Abstract
The only way for dengue to spread in the human population is through the human-mosquito-human cycle. Most research in this field discusses the dengue-mosquito or dengue-human relationships over a particular study area, but few have explored the local spatial variations of dengue-mosquito and dengue-human relationships within a study area. This study examined whether spatial heterogeneity exists in these relationships. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to analyze spatial relationships and identify the geographical heterogeneities by using the information of entomology and dengue cases in the cities of Kaohsiung and Fengshan in 2002. Our findings indicate that dengue-mosquito and dengue-human relationships were significantly spatially non-stationary. This means that in some areas higher dengue incidences were associated with higher vector/host densities, but in some areas higher incidences were related to lower vector/host densities. We demonstrated that a GWR model can be used to geographically differentiate the relationships of dengue incidence with immature mosquito and human densities. This study provides more insights into spatial targeting of intervention and control programs against dengue outbreaks within the study areas.
Highlights
Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the World [1]
We demonstrated that a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model can be used to geographically differentiate the relationships of dengue incidence with immature mosquito and human densities
We demonstrated that the variation of dengue incidences among study areas was reflected by the densities of both immature vectors and hosts
Summary
Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the World [1]. Its incidence has increased 30-fold in the last 50 years and has extended to new areas, across both rural and urban environments [1]. Some entomology studies have found no correlation between dengue incidence and immature vectors, neither temporally nor spatially [6,7,8,9,10]. A study in Trinidad recently showed that high dengue incidences were significantly related to high mosquito larval densities during certain years [11]. Most studies of dengue-mosquito or dengue-human relationships have presented a global perspective by which any relationship was assumed to be spatially constant across the whole study area, thereby ignoring local variations. We demonstrated that the variation of dengue incidences among study areas was reflected by the densities of both immature vectors and hosts. This understanding is especially important where the control and prevention resources are limited
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