Using Genersys to model electricity generation expansion

Abstract

In an environment of increasing complexity, with new electricity generation technologies, climate change, carbon pricing, and fluctuating fuel prices, electricity generation expansion planners need tools which facilitate the integration and synthesis of a wide range of complex and often uncertain information to support decision making for investment. This paper presents a capacity expansion algorithm integrated in Genersys - an agent-based simulation model for electricity and gas markets. The algorithm evaluates different electricity generation technologies for investment in new generating plants in different regions of the market as a response to growing electricity demand, unserved energy and/or high wholesale prices of electricity. It considers capacity factors associated with peak, intermediate and base load generation, technology and fuel costs, carbon price, and distribution of recent electricity prices. As a fully integrated simulation algorithm within Genersys, it can be used to assess complex investment scenarios defined by demand models, bidding behaviour of generators, non-scheduled renewable generation, outage models and all other components modelled by this simulation tool. The algorithm creates modular expansions - a single generating unit with predefined generation capacity of the best ranked generation technology in a region will be invested in if the investment criteria are satisfied. Generating plants newly created by the capacity expansion algorithm begin to participate in the market, producing and selling electricity. They will have immediate impact on the balance between demand and supply and ultimately will influence the electricity market prices as well. The capacity expansion algorithm can be used to evaluate investment decisions in a mix of generation technologies, including renewable technologies such as wind and big solar generation. In this paper, a case study illustrates the capabilities of the Genersys capacity expansion algorithm. Genersys successfully models the complexities and uncertainties in an integrated way facilitating better generation expansion planning.