Using generalized networks to forecast natural gas distribution and allocation during periods of shortage

Abstract

During the 1970’s the United States began to experience for the first time a shortage in natural gas. Various regulatory agencies, including the Federal Power Commission and state public utilities commissions, developed guidelines for allocation of short gas supplies according to prioritized lists of end-uses. During this period also the author developed a family of natural gas distribution models to assist analysts and decision makers in government and industry to forecast shortages and to evaluate alternative strategies for dealing with them. In this paper the author describes the techniques used in modelling the complex system of natural gas transmission, distribution, and allocation under changing conditions of supply and demand.