Using fuzzy time series with and without markov chain: to forecast of edible bird nest exported from Indonesia

Osfar Sjofjan,Danung Nur Adli,E Widodo,Suyadi Suyadi,Marjuki Marjuki,S Wahjuningsih,O Sjofjan,A Jayanegara,V.M.A Nurgiartiningsih,G Ciptadi,M.H Natsir

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202233500016

Abstract

Edible bird nest (EBN) were traditional medicine consumed by the Tiongkok. This study compared two-algorithm method. Fuzzy time series and Markov chain as forecast method the number of bird nest exported from Indonesia. The secondary data between 2012 and 2018 were from Bureau Central Statistic (BPS). The scope using in this study were bird nest between 2012 until 2018, with a unit of volume kilograms (Kg). Used secondary export data, collected from BPS of Indonesia. Data were analysed using Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain using R Studio. The result showed that Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain method performs better in the forecasting ability in short-term period prediction and the values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) tends to be smaller than the Fuzzy Time Series without Markov Chain. It can be concluded the number of exported can be used Fuzzy time series.

Highlights

One of them is influenced by the composition and nutrition of the feed ingredients used in the feed mixture so that it can accelerate of poultry [1,2,3]
Edible bird nest (EBN) were traditional medicine consumed by the Tiongkok
The steps were divided into 4 steps there were: determine the set of universes, create fuzzy sets, perform fuzzification, create Fuzzy Logic Relations (FLR), create Fuzzy Logic Relations Group (FLRG) and defuzzify using software

Summary

Introduction

One of them is influenced by the composition and nutrition of the feed ingredients used in the feed mixture so that it can accelerate of poultry [1,2,3]. Edible bird nest (EBN) were traditional medicine consumed by the Tiongkok. Edible bird nest were the most expensive animal products, which products by salivation of swiftlets (Aerodramus fuciphagus). Swiflets in Indonesia called wallet and edible bird nest were sarang wallet. The swiftlets were speeded between entire rest of the world. The exported of this product were increase during recently five years. There are inconsistently data such as Indonesia, there is a lot of method that can be used in the livestock data. For example are meta-analysis that uses to coin a single experiment by used various models instance a dataset [6, 7].

Methods

Results

Conclusion