Abstract
Today’s time series analysis is one of the most important statistical methods in forecasting, and it has been used in many economic, industrial, commercial and science fields, by representing time series characterized by long-term memory that helps predict future predictions and make appropriate and accurate decisions. In this research, we study prediction by relying on time series data for births in Basra Governorate. Using fuzzy-ARFIMA models and comparing them with each other using evaluation criteria (AIC& BIC) and (Adjust R-squared) for prediction, which are calculated using Eviews version (10), and Fuzzy-ARFIMA (12,0.104,12) was found. It is the best because it has the lowest values for (AIC & BIC) and the highest value for (Adjust R-squared), and also the highest forecasting efficiency because it has the lowest values for prediction accuracy scales (MAE& RMSE) and was chosen as the best model for predicting the future of monthly births in Basra
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