Using fuel and weather variables to predict the sustainability of surface fire spread in maritime pine stands

Abstract

Thresholds for surface fire spread were examined in maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in northern Portugal. Fire sustainability was assessed after ignition of 2 m fire lines or in larger burns conducted in 10–15 m wide plots. The experiments were carried out from November to June in three fuel types: litter, litter plus shrubs, and litter with a nonwoody understorey. Moisture content of fine dead fuels, on-site weather variables, and descriptors of the fuel complex all had a highly significant influence on the probability of self-sustaining fire spread. A logistic model based solely on fuel moisture content correctly classified the fire sustainability status of 88% of the observations. Nonetheless, the subjectivity of the moisture of extinction concept was apparent, and further accuracy was achieved by the consecutive addition of fire spread direction (forward or backward), fuel type, and ambient temperature. Fully sustained fire spread, in opposition to marginal burns with broken fire fronts, was similarly dependent on fuel moisture but was affected also by fire spread direction and time since rain. The models can benefit fire research and fire management operations but can be made more practical if integrated in a fire danger rating system.