Using Forecasts of Future Incidents to Evaluate Future ATM System Designs

Abstract

This paper describes and illustrates the use of a general methodology for knowledge elicitation to enable better prediction of the human factors implications of future system designs. Specifically, this approach involves the following steps:1. Identifying critical factors that could influence performance in the future system.2. Using this list of factors to predict incidents that could plausibly arise in the future system.3. Designing realistic, detailed incident reports based on these predicted incidents.4. Asking a group of experienced practitioners representing different perspectives in the current system to act as a review team by evaluating a reported incident and identifying the important issues and implications it raises.5. Using the insights generated by the discussions of the review team to provide guidance in making decisions about the implementation of the future system.To illustrate the use of this methodology, a scenario was developed. This scenario was based on experiences with the expanded National Route Program involving high-altitude crossing traffic (overflights) over departure and arrival lanes at a major airport. This already occurring situation was modified to fit the conditions of a future system in which en route Free Flight is allowed, and a hypothetical incident is predicted and described in detail in an incident report. A group including a pilot, two controllers, and an airline dispatcher was asked to act as a review team and evaluate this incident. The insights provided by the resultant discussion are presented. Many of these insights relate to issues concerning the roles and responsibilities of flight crews, controllers, traffic managers, and dispatchers. Others are concerned with the definition of procedures. Still others deal with issues of workload, training, maintenance of skills, and the communication of intent.