Abstract
Open data make it possible to set up multi-basin models for large domains across environmental, climate and administrative boundaries. This study presents new methods for evaluating a number of aspects of multi-basin model performance, while exploring the performance of the E-HYPE_v2.1 model for several evaluation criteria in 181 independent river gauges across the European continent. Embedded model assumptions on dominant flow generating mechanisms are analysed by correlating physiographical characteristics to the flow regime. The results indicate that the model captures the spatial variability of flow and is therefore suitable for predictions in ungauged basins. The model shows good performance of long-term means and seasonality, while short-term daily variability is less well represented, especially for Mediterranean and mountainous areas. Major identified shortcomings refer to the resolution of precipitation patterns, aquifer exchanges, water extractions and regulation. This will guide the work with the next model version for which improvements in input data, processes and calibration have been identified to potentially contribute most to improved model performance.EDITOR D. Koutosyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis
Highlights
The magnitude and dynamics of river flow are the result of numerous interacting processes across many spatial and temporal scales within the river catchment (Blöschl et al 2013, Hrachowitz et al 2013)
The results indicate that the model captures the spatial variability of flow and is suitable for predictions in ungauged basins
A database of observed discharge data was created for establishing flow signatures, using data downloaded from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), the European Water Archive (EWA) and the Baltex Hydrological Data Centre (BHDC) databases, initially including 1200 stations (Table 1)
Summary
The magnitude and dynamics of river flow are the result of numerous interacting processes across many spatial and temporal scales within the river catchment (Blöschl et al 2013, Hrachowitz et al 2013). In this paper we suggest that the assumption that there is a strong relationship between catchment characteristics and flow signatures should be tested in the model evaluation procedure, i.e. relationships in the observations should be assessed independently of the model, and compared with the ability of the multi-basin model to reproduce these observed relationships This exercise will indicate model shortcomings by indicating which processes may require more understanding. It has been argued that our ability to create a general hypothesis of hydrological behaviour is limited by catchment uniqueness (Beven 2000); the level of accuracy required for predictions in ungauged basins is determined by the objective for which the model predictions are to be used We explore this by widely testing the model against a dataset of independent discharge observations, to quantify the usefulness for predictions in ungauged basins.
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