Abstract
Rewilding has been proposed as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation in abandoned landscapes. However, rewilding is challenged by the increasing fire risk associated with more flammable landscapes, and the loss of open-habitat specialist species. Contrastingly, supporting High Nature Value farmlands (HNVf) has been also highlighted as a valuable option, but the effective implementation of agricultural policies often fails leading to uncertain scenarios wherein the effects of wildfire management remain largely unexplored. Herein, we simulated fire-landscape dynamics to evaluate how fire suppression scenarios affect fire regime and biodiversity (102 species of vertebrates) under rewilding and HNVf policies in the future (2050), in a transnational biosphere reserve (Gerês-Xurés Mountains, Portugal-Spain). Rewilding and HNVf scenarios were modulated by three different levels of fire suppression effectiveness. Then, we quantified scenario effects on fire regime (burned and suppressed areas) and biodiversity (habitat suitability change for 2050). Simulations confirm HNVf as a long-term opportunity for fire suppression (up to 30,000 ha of additional suppressed areas between 2031 and 2050 in comparison to rewilding scenario) and for conservation (benefiting around 60% of species). Rewilding benefits some species (20%), including critically endangered, vulnerable and endemic taxa, while several species (33%) also profit from open habitats created by fire. Although HNVf remains the best scenario, rewilding reinforced by low fire suppression management may provide a nature-based solution when societal support through agricultural policies fails.
Highlights
Land abandonment in rural landscapes is one of the most important drivers of regional land-use change (Estoque et al, 2019), and has been suggested as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation and the reinstatement of natural ecological processes (e.g. Queiroz et al, 2014; Merckx and Pereira, 2015)
Studies indicated that the gradual cessation of traditional farming areas, many of which known to support “High Nature Value farmlands”, is a major cause of local biodiversity losses, accelerating population declines of species adapted to wet grasslands, pastures and other extensive agricultural areas (Franks et al, 2018; Lomba et al, 2020)
Our study suggests using fire to enhance rewilding as an alternative management strategy in our study area — an issue that decision makers and managers should consider when implementing rewilding initiatives in other fire-prone regions
Summary
Land abandonment in rural landscapes is one of the most important drivers of regional land-use change (Estoque et al, 2019), and has been suggested as an opportunity for biodiversity conservation and the reinstatement of natural ecological processes (e.g. Queiroz et al, 2014; Merckx and Pereira, 2015). In Europe, rewilding initiatives (e.g. Rewilding Europe Network; https://rewildingeurope.com) might benefit biodiversity by providing renewed suitable habitats and dispersal corridors, alleviating forest habitat fragmentation (Perino et al, 2019) This management strategy might be beneficial for a diversity of forest-adapted species, including emblematic taxa of conservation concern such as wolfs and bears (Navarro and Pereira, 2015). Shrub encroachment caused by land abandonment contributes to fuel accumulations and higher connectivity of flammable vegetation, increasing the potential incidence, severity and impacts of large wildfires (see Moreira et al, 2011 and references therein) These changes in the fire-vegetation dynamics could cause severe impacts on local ecosystem processes and associated biodiversity, in regions where landscapes and biota have endured a long-term relation with human activities and fire regimes
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