Using Feed Forward BPNN for Forecasting All Share Price Index

Abstract

Use of artificial neural networks has become a significant and an emerging research method due to its capability of capturing nonlinear behavior instead of conventional time series methods. Among them, feed forward back propagation neural network (BPNN) is the widely used network topology for forecasting stock prices indices. In this study, we attempted to find the best network topology for one step ahead forecasting of All Share Price Index (ASPI), Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) by employing feed forward BPNN. The daily data including ASPI, All Share Total Return Index (ASTRI), Market Price Earnings Ratio (PER), and Market Price to Book Value (PBV) were collected from CSE over the period from January 2nd 2012 to March 20th 2014. The experiment is implemented by prioritizing the number of inputs, learning rate, number of hidden layer neurons, and the number of training sessions. Eight models were selected on basis of input data and the number of training sessions. Then the best model was used for forecasting next trading day ASPI value. Empirical result reveals that the proposed model can be used as an approximation method to obtain next day value. In addition, it showed that the number of inputs, number of hidden layer neurons and the training times are significant factors that can be affected to the accuracy of forecast value.