Using econometric models to make management decisions at oil and gas enterprises

Abstract

Subject. At present, there is a need to increase the flexibility of exporting companies and gas traders to ensure the stability and continuity of supplies in the European gas market. The specialized literature does not fully present scientifically based methods and algorithms, according to which a management decision can be made on the problem. Objectives. Our aim is to develop a methodology enabling to qualitatively and quantitatively substantiate the feasibility of building a certain portfolio of capacities, and to evaluate the effects of its implementation. Methods. The study draws on general scientific research methods. Results. We developed and tested a model that allows modeling and forecasting of high-frequency time series, using VARMA and ARIMA econometric models, to make accurate and reasonable short- and medium-term decisions, and to generate a growth strategy for enterprises operating in the oil and gas industry. Conclusions. Our findings correspond to the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the International Energy Agency, thus confirming that the model is relevant for use in the oil and gas industry. The findings can be applied in educational process in the field of ‘macroeconomics’, ‘econometrics’, in the implementation of operational and strategic planning at enterprises. They also can be useful for research and development, including testing at enterprises of other sectors and industries.