Abstract
We assess the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea (Arecaceae), commonly called acai. To construct the ecological niche model of E. oleracea, we used 95 points of occurrence, five bioclimatic variables in current and future climate scenarios and Maxent software. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was used to rank the ability of the models (considering ecological, socioeconomic and spatial variables) to explain the variation in productivity of E. oleracea among 200 municipalities. The maps showed that regions with higher environmental suitability for E. oleracea were concentrated in northern and northeastern Brazil, which was similar to the spatial pattern of productivity data of E. oleracea. Future climate conditions tend to promote an increase in the geographical distribution of this species, even though the new regions are in the arch of Amazon deforestation. Only space and the environmental suitability (indicated by the ecological niche model) were important for explaining the productivity of E. oleracea. That is, municipalities that are more productive are located in more suitable environmental regions. Therefore, it is important to use niche models to explain demographic changes and to estimate species demographic attributes.
Highlights
Global climate change has aroused much interest and concern in the mass media and academia, which reflects a growing number of papers published on the topic in recent years (Nabout et al 2011)
The maps showed that regions with higher environmental suitability for E. oleracea were concentrated in northern and northeastern Brazil, which was similar to the spatial pattern of productivity data of E. oleracea
These studies have shown that global climate change may reduce the area that is climatically suitable for focal species or shift their geographical distributions, which may lead to economic losses and increases in socio-environmental vulnerability
Summary
Global climate change has aroused much interest and concern in the mass media and academia, which reflects a growing number of papers published on the topic in recent years (Nabout et al 2011). Torres et al 2012) These studies have shown that global climate change may reduce the area that is climatically suitable for focal species or shift their geographical distributions (mainly studies in Brazil, see Diniz-Filho et al 2009a), which may lead to economic losses and increases in socio-environmental vulnerability (see Tôrres et al 2012). Global climate change can affect the productivity of many plant species, especially species that undergo harvesting and extractive practices (Nabout et al 2011; 2016). Such species may suffer progressive changes in their production in coming years, in the Brazilian Amazon region, which is a very important part of the local and rural economy (Homma 2012)
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