Using decomposition analysis to evaluate the performance of China’s 30 provinces in CO2 emission reductions over 2005–2009

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction performance of 30 mainland provinces in China over 2005–2009. First, the log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique is used to decompose the changes in CO2 emissions at the provincial level into 4 effects that are carbon intensity effect, energy mix effect, energy intensity effect and gross domestic product (GDP) effect. Next, two indicators, decoupling index and rescaled decoupling index, are implemented to evaluate the performance of 30 provinces in CO2 emission reduction from 2005 to 2009. The decomposition result shows that the GDP growth is mainly responsible for the CO2 emissions increase, while the energy intensity effect is the key factor for the decrease in CO2 emissions in each province. Moreover, according to the evaluation, the performance of each province in what concerns the CO2 emission reduction varies significantly. Most provinces in China made significant efforts in emissions reduction during 2005–2009, while some provinces only made weak efforts or even no efforts in decoupling progress.