Using Cross Validation to Design Conservative Surrogates

Abstract

this work we use safety margins to conservatively compensate for fitting errors associated with surrogates. We propose the use of cross validation for estimating the required safety margin for a desired level of conservativeness (percentage of safe predictions). The approach was tested on three algebraic examples for two basic surrogates: namely, kriging and polynomial response surface. For these examples we found that cross validation is effective for selecting the safety margin. We also applied the approach to the probabilistic design optimization of a composite laminate. This design under uncertainty example showed that the approach can be successfully used in engineering applications.