Using consumer preference data in forecasting demand in apparel retailing

Abstract

PurposeThis study was carried out to analyze the importance of consumer preference data in forecasting demand in apparel retailing.MethodologyTo collect preference data, 729 hypothetical stock keeping units (SKU) were derived using a full factorial design, from a combination of six attributes and three levels each. From the hypothetical SKU's, 63 practical SKU's were selected for further analysis. Two hundred two responses were collected from a store intercept survey. Respondents' utility scores for all 63 SKUs were calculated using conjoint analysis. In estimating aggregate demand, to allow for consumer substitution and to make the SKU available when a consumer wishes to buy more than one item in the same SKU, top three highly preferred SKU's utility scores of each individual were selected and classified using a decision tree and was aggregated. A choice rule was modeled to include substitution; by applying this choice rule, aggregate demand was estimated.FindingsThe respondents' utility scores were calculated. The value of Kendall's tau is 0.88, the value of Pearson's R is 0.98 and internal predictive validity using Kendall's tau is 1.00, and this shows the high quality of data obtained. The proposed model was used to estimate the demand for 63 SKUs. The demand was estimated at 6.04 per cent for the SKU cotton, regular style, half sleeve, medium priced, private label. The proposed model for estimating demand using consumer preference data gave better estimates close to actual sales than expert opinion data. The Spearman's rank correlation between actual sales and consumer preference data is 0.338 and is significant at 5 per cent level. The Spearman's rank correlation between actual sales and expert opinion is −0.059, and there is no significant relation between expert opinion data and actual sales. Thus, consumer preference model proves to be better in estimating demand than expert opinion data.Research implicationsThere has been a considerable amount of work done in choice-based models. There is a lot of scope in working in deterministic models.Practical implicationThe proposed consumer preference-based demand estimation model can be beneficial to the apparel retailers in increasing their profit by reducing stock-out and overstocking situations. Though conjoint analysis is used in demand estimation in other industries, it is not used in apparel for demand estimations and can be greater use in its simplest form.Originality/valueThis research is the first one to model consumer preferences-based data to estimate demand in apparel. This research was practically tested in an apparel retail store. It is original.