Using cluster analysis methods to forecast the investment development of agricultural sector enterprises

Abstract

Purpose. The aim of the article is substantiation and use of cluster analysis methods for forecasting investment development of agricultural sector enterprises. Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the article is the fundamental provisions of modern economics. The following methods are used in the process of research: analysis and synthesis – to study the object and subject of research; grouping, abstract and logical – for theoretical generalizations of research results and formulation of conclusions; tools of econometric modelling: method of cluster analysis, constructive and strategic forecasting – in the study of the state of the agricultural sector, substantiation of the directions of cluster formation, forecasting trends in the agricultural sector for the future; statistical analysis and generalization – to process an array of statistical and empirical data and formulate the relevant conclusions of the conducted study. Findings. The need to model the conditions associated with investment in an unstable external environment of the agricultural sector. The application of cluster analysis to study the state of the agricultural sector is proposed. The use of econometric modelling tools – methods of statistical analysis for forecasting the development of agricultural enterprises is substantiated. The cost of investments in agriculture of Ukraine is analysed. Originality. Recommendations for wider use of econometric modelling tools to ensure the process of planning and forecasting the development of the agricultural sector of the economy have been deepened. The scientific and methodological approach to forecasting the development of the agricultural sector for the future has been improved with the help of cluster analysis tools, which confirmed the rational use of territorial distribution by regions and growth of investment capacity of agricultural production and average labour productivity. Practical value. The obtained results of the study allowed to systematize the factors that most affect the results of financial and economic activities, and to identify three scenarios of agricultural production in clusters (in homogeneous groups of regions): realistic, optimistic and pessimistic forecasts, identify alternative trajectories of agricultural sector, compare forecasting volumes of agricultural production with domestic needs and estimate export growth. Key words: agricultural sector, investment support, methods of cluster analysis, investment development forecasting, cluster, scenarios of agricultural production development.