Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Shaun W Molloy,Sarah Comer,Robert A Davis,Allan H Burbidge

doi:10.1017/s0030605318000923

Abstract

AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

Highlights

A common conservation action for threatened species is to reintroduce them to areas of former habitat after the presumed threats have been mitigated (Seddon et al, )
If we reintroduce a species to an area where it is locally extinct, and mitigate those factors that we often assume to be the cause of this extinction, do we adequately consider the following questions? ( ) Has a changing climate played a direct or indirect part in this extinction? ( ) Given a changing climate, will this species be able to persist in this location, with or without the mitigation of other recognized threats? ( ) In our attempts to mitigate climate change impacts are we potentially facilitating unforeseen threats (Brambilla et al, )?
We focus on a Critically Endangered bird in south-western Australia, the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Summary

Introduction

A common conservation action for threatened species is to reintroduce them to areas of former habitat after the presumed threats have been mitigated (Seddon et al, ). Management actions are rarely targeted at longer-term threats that may render habitat unsuitable, such as climate change (Thomas, ; Stein et al, ). Faunal restoration projects in these and other areas subject to rapid climate change would be remiss if they did not attempt to quantify the future suitability of habitat (Thomas, ; Molloy et al, ). Species distribution model algorithms have the capacity to determine a species’ potential distribution and predict how this will change in response to probable changes in predictive variables (Elith & Leathwick, ; Pliscoff & Fuentes-Castillo, ; Molloy et al, ) but they are rarely used to inform reintroduction into parts of the former distribution of a target species or ecological community (Osborne & Seddon, ). If we reintroduce a species to an area where it is locally extinct, and mitigate those factors that we often assume to be the cause of this extinction, do we adequately consider the following questions? ( ) Has a changing climate played a direct or indirect part in this extinction? ( ) Given a changing climate, will this species be able to persist in this location, with or without the mitigation of other recognized threats? ( ) In our attempts to mitigate climate change impacts are we potentially facilitating unforeseen threats (Brambilla et al, )?

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