Abstract
Seabirds have been identified and used as indicators of ecosystem processes such as climate change and human activity in nearshore ecosystems around the globe. Temporal and spatial trends have been documented at large spatial scales, but few studies have examined more localized patterns of spatiotemporal variation, by species or functional group. In this paper, we apply spatial occupancy models to assess the spatial patchiness and interannual trends of 18 seabird species in the Puget Sound region (Washington State, USA). Our dataset, the Puget Sound Seabird Survey of the Seattle Audubon Society, is unique in that it represents a seven-year study, collected with a focus on winter months (October–April). Despite historic declines of seabirds in the region over the last 50 years, results from our study are optimistic, suggesting increases in probabilities of occurrence for 14 of the 18 species included. We found support for declines in occurrence for white-winged scoters, brants, and 2 species of grebes. The decline of Western grebes in particular is troubling, but in agreement with other recent studies that have shown support for a range shift south in recent years, to the southern end of California Current.
Highlights
Ecologists and conservation practitioners have long focused on describing species distribution and estimating changes in abundance (Holmes, 2001) or occurrence through time (MacKenzie et al, 2006)
Species selection Over the first seven years of the Puget Sound Seabird Survey (PSSS), observer teams recorded 75 unique seabird species. While many of these species may be useful as indicators of various ecosystem processes or human impacts, we focused our analysis on 18 species that have previously been identified as useful seabird indicator species in the region (Table 2; Pearson & Hamel, 2013) because of their relative abundance and dependence on the marine waters of the Puget Sound (Gaydos & Pearson, 2011)
Spatially-structured citizen-science datasets have been used at a large spatial scale, in quantifying shifts in phenology linked to climate
Summary
Ecologists and conservation practitioners have long focused on describing species distribution and estimating changes in abundance (Holmes, 2001) or occurrence through time (MacKenzie et al, 2006). Using species distribution modeling to identify the spatial variability and hotspots of a species’ distribution has multiple implications for science and management. From a conservation perspective, incorporating spatial variation in models may assist in selecting areas to protect or predicting where species are likely to persist. From a theoretical ecology perspective, null or neutral models of species’ occurrence may be useful in predicting species diversity or community assembly (Gotelli, 2000; Gotelli & McGill, 2006). The inclusion of spatial variation has implications for management and policy in that accounting for spatial heterogeneity may help in forecasting how species may respond to future environmental conditions, such as range shifts in response to climate change (Jetz, Wilcove & Dobson, 2007)
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