Abstract
Assessing the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River can provide support for water management in the Yellow River Basin. This paper firstly uses a multiple linear regression method to evaluate the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the vegetation change in the source area of the Yellow River. Next, the paper uses the Budyko hypothesis method to calculate the contribution rates of climatic factors (including precipitation, potential evaporation, and subsequent vegetation changes) and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change of the Tangnaihai Hydrometric Station. The results showed that: (1) the annual runoff and precipitation in the source area of the Yellow River have a downward trend, while the annual potential evaporation and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) show an increasing trend; (2) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the vegetation change in the source area of the Yellow River is 62.79% and 37.21%, respectively; (3) The runoff change became more and more sensitive to changes in climate and underlying surface characteristic parameters; (4) The contribution rates of climatic factors (including precipitation, potential evaporation, and subsequent vegetation changes) and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change at Tangnaihai Hydrological Station are 75.33% and 24.67%, respectively; (5) The impact of precipitation on runoff reduction is more substantial than that of potential evaporation.
Highlights
In recent years, research on the mechanism of the hydrological cycle and water resources evolution under the changing environment has gradually become a hotspot [1]
37.21%, respectively; (3) The runoff change became more and more sensitive to changes in climate and underlying surface characteristic parameters; (4) The contribution rates of climatic factors and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change at Tangnaihai Hydrological Station are 75.33% and
To accurately assess the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River basin, it is necessary to distinguish the impact of natural and human factors on land type changes, which is characterized by NDVI data
Summary
Research on the mechanism of the hydrological cycle and water resources evolution under the changing environment has gradually become a hotspot [1]. Zhou et al [17] used the Budyko formula to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River during 1960–2010 and found that 1989 was the abrupt change year of runoff in the source area of the Yellow River basin and human activities are the main factor leading to runoff change, with a contribution rate of 67.62%. To accurately assess the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River basin, it is necessary to distinguish the impact of natural and human factors on land type changes, which is characterized by NDVI data. This paper uses the Budyko hypothesis method to calculate the contribution rates of climatic factors (including precipitation, potential evaporation, and subsequent vegetation changes) and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River
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