Using Bradley–Terry models to analyse test match cricket

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the use of Bradley–Terry models to analyse test match cricket. Specifically, we develop a new and alternative team ranking and compare our rankings with those produced by the International Cricket Council, we forecast the outcomes of a selected number of test cricket matches and show that our predictions perform well compared to bookmaker predictions. We offer ratings of individual players and use these ratings to predict the results of some recent matches. The general purpose of the paper is to illustrate the potential of Bradley–Terry models, which are effectively models of P(i is preferred to j), and thus can be applied in a number of settings where there are paired comparisons. Popular applications include analysing taste test experiments and modelling sports competitions. More creative examples of applications include statistical modelling of citation exchange among statistics journals, predicting the fighting ability of lizards and estimating driver crash risks.