Using an International Econometric Model to Forecast Alaska Salmon Revenues

Abstract

As Alaska prices tumbled in the 1990s, Alaska's Senate Special Committee on Domestic and International Commercial Fisheries requested a comprehensive review of the Alaska salmon enhancement program. As part of this review, a revenue analysis was performed to examine the effects of various salmon enhancement production levels on future revenue generated to salmon fishers working in Alaska waters. The results were then used in a cost/benefit analysis of the state's enhancement program for sockeye, chinook, coho, chum, and pink salmon. This report focuses on the two most important Alaska salmon species, sockeye and pink. Results of the revenue analysis indicate that for sockeye salmon, future revenues would increase if output from salmon enhancement were expanded. For pink salmon, revenues would decrease if salmon enhancement were expanded and increase if salmon enhancement were scaled back. However, a complete elimination of the pink hatchery program would decrease revenues. For both species, there are important regional differences.