Using an Arbitrary Moment Predictor to Investigate the Optimal Choice of Prognostic Moments in Bulk Cloud Microphysics Schemes

Abstract

AbstractMost bulk cloud microphysics schemes predict up to three standard properties of hydrometeor size distributions, namely, the mass mixing ratio, number concentration, and reflectivity factor in order of increasing scheme complexity. However, it is unclear whether this combination of properties is optimal for obtaining the best simulation of clouds and precipitation in models. In this study, a bin microphysics scheme has been modified to act like a bulk microphysics scheme. The new scheme can predict an arbitrary combination of two or three moments of the hydrometeor size distributions. As a first test of the arbitrary moment predictor (AMP), box model simulations of condensation, evaporation, and collision‐coalescence are conducted for a variety of initial cloud droplet distributions and for a variety of configurations of AMP. The performance of AMP is assessed relative to the bin scheme from which it was built. The results show that no double‐ or triple‐moment configuration of AMP can simultaneously minimize the error of all cloud droplet distribution moments. In general, predicting low‐order moments helps to minimize errors in the cloud droplet number concentration, but predicting high‐order moments tends to minimize errors in the cloud mass mixing ratio. The results have implications for which moments should be predicted by bulk microphysics schemes for the cloud droplet category.