Using aircraft location data to estimate current economic activity

Sam Miller,Helen Susannah Moat,Tobias Preis

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63734-w

Sam Miller, Helen Susannah Moat + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63734-w

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Abstract

Aviation is a key sector of the economy, contributing at least 3% to gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK and the US. Currently, airline performance statistics are published with a three month delay. However, aircraft now broadcast their location in real-time using the Automated Dependent Surveillance Broadcast system (ADS-B). In this paper, we analyse a global dataset of flights since July 2016. We first show that it is possible to accurately estimate airline flight volumes using ADS-B data, which is available immediately. Next, we demonstrate that real-time knowledge of flight volumes can be a leading indicator for aviation’s direct contribution to GDP in both the UK and the US. Using ADS-B data could therefore help move us towards real-time estimates of GDP, which would equip policymakers with the information to respond to shocks more quickly.

Highlights

Aviation is a key sector of the economy, contributing at least 3% to gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK and the US
We have assessed whether Automated Dependent Surveillance Broadcast system (ADS-B) data can help nowcast aviation statistics, which are currently published with a three month delay
We first show that ADS-B data can accurately estimate airline performance, as measured by their flight volume

Summary

Introduction

Aviation is a key sector of the economy, contributing at least 3% to gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK and the US. Using ADS-B data could help move us towards real-time estimates of GDP, which would equip policymakers with the information to respond to shocks more quickly. Most economic statistics, such as GDP, are released with a significant delay. Aviation is a key economic sector, contributing at least 3% to GDP in the UK and the US13,14 Aircraft broadcast their location, among other data, in real-time using the Automated Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) system. The current paper analyses whether ADS-B data can help nowcast airline performance and aviation’s direct contribution to GDP. Faster statistics could help policymakers respond more quickly to future economic shocks, thereby limiting their damage

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