Abstract
Ice jams are common winter hazards in rivers. In this study, ice-jam-related disasters were predicted at fixed points on a river based on air temperature data alone to develop a simple prediction method. Specifically, data were collected regarding disasters caused by ice jams in two major municipalities along the Lena River of Russia, Lensk and Yakutsk. Ice-sheet thickness was calculated by an equation that takes air temperature as the sole input variable over a period from the beginning of ice sheet formation to complete ice sheet melting. The method for predicting disasters focuses on maximum ice sheet thickness and the daily rate of decrease in ice sheet thickness. Comparison between measured and calculated values indicate that the equation for calculating the ice sheet thickness is applicable to the Lena River. Disasters from ice jams at Lensk and Yakutsk were retrospectively predicted by calculating ice sheet thickness with the equation in which only air temperature was substituted. The calculation results suggest that ice jams cause disasters when air temperature is not high during ice sheet melting. The daily decrease of ice sheet thickness is slow under low air temperatures, so the ice sheet can persist over prolonged periods in the river channel. It is also suggested that a large value of maximum ice sheet thickness affects the likelihood of disasters caused by ice jams.
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