Abstract
BackgroundKuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.MethodsThe analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities.ResultsThe model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.ConclusionsIn the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.
Highlights
Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths
The most stringent form of social distancing is the use of a community-wide quarantine or “lockdown” that can be applied to a city, region or entire country as a way to drastically stop the movement of people
The same figure shows that implementing the lockdown that is half as long (45 days) can still achieve about a 50% reduction in hospitalizations
Summary
Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. The degree, type and timing of interventions to reduce the health burden of a pandemic must be applied using a precautionary approach with little epidemiological evidence. Many countries affected by growing numbers of COVID-19 cases shifted management of the pandemic from contact tracing, travel restrictions and quarantine of case contacts [2] to include broader population interventions such as public health communications, social distancing (school closures, work from home), voluntary quarantines (self-isolation), curfews, limited cross-border or regional travel, and lockdowns to reduce person-to-person transmission [6]. The most stringent form of social distancing is the use of a community-wide quarantine or “lockdown” that can be applied to a city, region or entire country as a way to drastically stop the movement of people
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