Abstract
The logarithm of the flow of a river in Quebec, Canada, is modeled as a Gaussian diffusion process. Using this model, forecasts of the river flow are made for up to 7 days ahead. The forecasts are found to be much more accurate for 1 day ahead than those produced by a deterministic model called PREVIS. The stochastic model also outperforms PREVIS for 2 days ahead forecasts and is comparable to PREVIS for 3 days ahead forecasts. In general, PREVIS is more accurate than the stochastic model proposed from 4 days ahead forecasts. Various possible improvements of the stochastic model are considered, including the incorporation of exogenous variables and the use of linear regression. The best forecasts are actually obtained by taking the average value of the forecasts produced by the stochastic model and by PREVIS. Finally, confidence interval for the forecasted values are also provided.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
