Using a fuzzy TOPSIS-based scenario analysis to improve municipal solid waste planning and forecasting: A case study of Canary archipelago (1999–2030)

Abstract

In this paper the Canary archipelago is used as a study case to analyse and improve the municipal solid waste (MSW) planning process. The research has been conducted in four steps, namely, the Delphi technique helped to capture the knowledge of the local experts, the fuzzy TOPSIS to rank the MSW treatment methods more consistently, the System Dynamics to design a mathematical model based on MSW official historical data from 1999 up to 2014, and Scenario Analysis to forecast the future evolution of the MSW until 2030 under different policies. According to the results obtained by simulating several possible and desirable scenarios, the model predicts that by maintaining the current policies (Business As Usual scenario), it will be impossible to meet the targets of the MSW European Directive. The model also estimates the annual ratios to be reached for each component of the MSW so that they can comply with the European Directive, e.g. regarding to recycling (Scenario 2) and organic and rest fraction collection (Scenario 3) and the influences of the resident population and the equivalent touristic population on the total MSW generation until 2030. This methodological approach could be replicated in other territories.