Abstract
An approach based on forced Duffing Equation with cubic term is proposed to solve the single risk factor control problem in complex social-technical systems from the micro perspective. The single risk control problem is transformed into a system vibration control problem. Firstly, the relationships among Duffing Equation, system state sudden change and single risk factor control are analyzed. System control point crosses the bifurcation set is an important condition for the system state sudden change, the Duffing Equation can be used to establish the vibration equation of the complex social-technical system, and the risk control method of the complex social-technical system can be deduced based on the vibration equation. Secondly, the interference of the external environment in Duffing Equation is defined as the energy change of risk pulse. Next, we establish the system risk control equation and derive its bifurcation response equation with stable solutions. Under three safety protection measures conditions, including strengthening internal damping of system, reducing external excitation influence, strengthening internal damping of the system while reducing external excitation influence, three system risk control strengthening equations are established and their corresponding bifurcation response equations with stable solutions are derived, respectively. Finally, a real-world case study is conducted.
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