User interest in on-demand, shared, and driverless mobility: Evidence from stated preference choice experiments in Southern Ontario

Abstract

Understanding how new technologies such as on-demand ride hailing and vehicle automation may affect travel behavior is important to craft better policy. This study uses a 2018 survey of 1,684 employed respondents from vehicle-holding households residing in Southern Ontario, Canada. Stated preference choice experiments are administered and mixed logit models are estimated to explore consumer interest in adopting driverless on-demand vehicles, shared on-demand vehicles, transit plus on-demand vehicles, and driverless public transit shuttles. Monetized generalized costs of each of these choice attributes are estimated. Results indicate generalized costs from combining transit with on-demand ride hailing (a frequently contemplated “last-mile” solution), while users are relatively ambivalent about the generalized cost of shared on-demand ride-hailing. Results indicate that consumers view driverless public transit shuttles and driverless cars as conferring higher generalized costs than vehicles with drivers. Overall, results suggest that the market shares of these modes depend on the potential for service providers to capitalize on heterogenous preferences among consumers. As such, insofar that public transit agencies and the public sector appear less well-suited to nimbly meet heterogeneous consumer demand, the private sector appears poised to play the most direct role in leveraging these new technologies towards meeting user needs. In turn, these findings suggest that the best role for the public sector with respect these new services lies in establishing incentives by engaging with private industry and/or regulating downstream impacts of new mobility services.