Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in patients with urinary tract infections in the emergency department

Abstract

ObjectiveTo analyze the usefulness of a new predictive model of bacteremia (5MPB-Toledo) in patients treated for urinary tract infection (UTI) in the emergency department (ED). MethodsProspective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered for patients with UTIs in 65 Spanish ED from November 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020.The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The diagnostic performance was calculated with the chosen cut-off point for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. ResultsA total of 1,499 blood cultures were evaluated. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 277 (18.5%). The remaining 1,222 cultures (81.5%) were negative. Ninety-four (6.3%) were considered contaminated. The model’s area under the ROC curve was 0.937 (95% CI, 0.926–0.949). The prognostic performance with a model’s cut-off value of ≥5 points achieved 97.47% (95% CI, 94.64–98.89) sensitivity, 76.68% (95% CI, 74.18–79.00) specificity, 48.65% (95% CI, 44.42–52.89) positive predictive value and 99.26% (95% CI, 98.41–99.67) negative predictive value. ConclusionThe 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in patients with UTIs who visit the ED.