Usefulness of Combined Risk Stratification With Heart Rate and Systolic Blood Pressure in the Management of Chronic Heart Failure

Abstract

The appropriate target ranges of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) for the management of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients remain to be elucidated in a large-scale cohort study. We examined 3,029 consecutive CHF patients with sinus rhythm (SR) (mean age, 67.9 years) registered in the Chronic Heart Failure Analysis and Registry in the Tohoku District-2 Study (CHART-2; NCT00418041). There were 357 deaths (11.8%) during the median follow-up of 3.1 years. We first performed the classification and regression tree analysis for mortality, identifying SBP <89 mmHg, HR >70 beats/min and SBP <115 mmHg as the primary, secondary and tertiary discriminators, respectively. According to these, we divided the patients into low- (n=1,131), middle- (n=1,624) and high-risk (n=274) groups with mortality risk <10%, 10-20% and >20%, respectively. The low-risk group was characterized by SBP >115 mmHg and HR <70 beats/min and the high-risk group by SBP <89 mmHg regardless of HR values or SBP 89-115 mmHg and HR >76 beats/min. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the hazard ratio of all-cause death for low-, middle- and high-risk groups was 1.00 (reference), 1.48 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.99, P=0.009) and 2.44 (95% CI 1.66-3.58, P<0.001), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that age ≥70 years, diabetes, or reduced left ventricular function had higher hazard ratios in the high-risk group. The results demonstrate the usefulness of combined risk stratification of HR and SBP in CHF patients with SR.