Use the ARIMA and EMG Models to Predict the Confirmed Cases and ICU Bed Occupancy Data of COVID-19 in Massachusetts and Compare the Accuracy of the Two Models

Abstract

Beginning in 2019, COVID-19 has invaded our lives and continues until now. People are still being effort made to control the spread of the virus and treat patients. Two variables in COVID-19 data are confirmed data and ICU bed occupancy data. Collect the data, use the ARIMA model and EMG model to predict the data, and then compare it with the actual data. Through comparison, it is found that there is a small gap between the ARIMA predicted value and the actual data, which can be used to predict the data of these two variables. In the process of fighting against COVID-19, it is very important to strengthen medical service capabilities, adequate treatment resources, and strengthen the construction of ICU wards. The construction of ICU is very complicated and involves many medical equipment, including ventilator, infusion pump, electrocardiogram machine, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machine (ECMO), oximeter and so on. Therefore, the accuracy of data prediction is very important. Sufficient ICU beds and medical resources can be prepared according to the forecast. Do a good job of safeguarding the treatment work and medical services to ensure the level and quality of patient treatment and avoid causing panic.