Abstract
Symptomatic cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease has been the standard endpoint for clinical trials in organ transplant recipients. Viral load may be a more relevant endpoint due to low frequency of disease. We performed a meta-analysis and systematic review of the literature. We found several lines of evidence to support the validity of viral load as an appropriate surrogate end-point, including the following: (1) viral loads in CMV disease are significantly greater than in asymptomatic viremia (odds ratio, 9.3 95% confidence interval, 4.6-19.3); (2) kinetics of viral replication are strongly associated with progression to disease; (3) pooled incidence of CMV viremia and disease is significantly lower during prophylaxis compared with the full patient follow-up period (viremia incidence: 3.2% vs 34.3%; P < .001) (disease incidence: 1.1% vs 13.0%; P < .001); (4) treatment of viremia prevented disease; and (5) viral load decline correlated with symptom resolution. Based on the analysis, we conclude that CMV load is an appropriate surrogate endpoint for CMV trials in organ transplant recipients.
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