Use of transvaginal ultrasonography to predict preterm birth in women with a history of preterm birth

Abstract

To investigate whether cervical length measured by transvaginal ultrasonography predicts spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks' gestation in women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth, stratified by spontaneous preterm birth history subtype (preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) or preterm labor with intact membranes at onset of labor). This retrospective cohort study included women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth that were subsequently pregnant with singleton gestations, compared with a low-risk control group. Transvaginal ultrasonographic cervical lengths were measured at 24 to 30 weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks. Secondary outcomes included spontaneous preterm birth at < 37 weeks and < 34 weeks, low birth weight, Cesarean delivery and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to control for potential confounders and calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to determine the best cut-off for transvaginal ultrasound cervical length in predicting spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks. Women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth with intact membranes at onset of labor (n = 42) had a shorter cervical length (3.28 cm) than women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth with PPROM at onset of labor (n = 48, cervical length 3.77 cm; P = 0.019), and both subgroups had shorter cervical lengths than the low-risk control group (n = 103, cervical length 4.30 cm; P < 0.0001). Both subgroups were associated with spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks, < 37 weeks, < 34 weeks and birth weight < 2500 g. ROC curves determined that the best cut-off for cervical length to predict spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks was 3.0 cm. By multiple logistic regression analysis, the only independent predictors of spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks were cervical length < 3.0 cm, a history of spontaneous preterm birth and antepartum bleeding in the current pregnancy. In women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth, a cervical length as measured by transvaginal ultrasonography of < 3.0 cm had a sensitivity of 63.6%, specificity of 77.2%, positive predictive value of 28.0% and negative predictive value of 93.8%, for preterm birth at < 35 weeks. Women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth with preterm labor and intact membranes at the onset of labor have shorter cervices than women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth and PPROM at the onset of labor, and both groups have shorter cervices than a low-risk control group. Both groups of women with a history of spontaneous preterm birth have an increased risk of recurrent spontaneous preterm birth at < 35 weeks, and this is predicted by a transvaginal ultrasound cervical length of < 3.0 cm.