Use of the RAINS model in acid rain negotiations in Europe

Abstract

The use of models in international negotiations on environmental problems for which no compulsory action can be imposed is a recent trend. In the past, international agreements have been reached without any model being used. For example, the first step in reducing acid rain in Europe and North America was made in 1985 without using an integrated model. Neither was a model used to establish the Vienna Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer (1986). Analyzing the reasons for using mathematical models in environmental negotiations is not the subject of this paper. Suffice it to say there are several recent examples of models being used in preparing international policy actions, for instance the Law of the Sea and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The acceptance of models as tools in negotiations depends on many factors. The differences in the attitudes toward use of models in the case of assessment of acid rain in Europe and North America have been analyzed. In this paper, the author reviews the current use of the RAINS model and points out some lessons for the development of models that could be used in international environmental negotiations.