Use of the correlation between input variables in estimating the risk of feedlot finishing of steers and young steers

Paulo S Pacheco,Leonir L Pascoal,João Restle,Janaine L Olegario,Karoline G Valença,Fabiano N Vaz,Ricardo Z Vaz

doi:10.1590/0001-37652014110012

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of feedlot finishing of steers (22.8 months) and young steers (15.2 months), using or not a correlation between the random input variables (data collected from 2004 to 2010) in the simulation of the Net Present Value (NPV) financial indicator. The animals were fed a diet containing roughage:concentrate ratio of 60:40 for 34 and 143 days, respectively, until they had reached a predetermined slaughter weight of 430 kg. For the NPV simulation, Latin Hypercube sampling was used, with 2000 interactions. The stochastic dominance analysis, test of differences between pairs of curves of cumulative distributions and sensitivity analysis were carried out. The NPV simulation using the correlation resulted in the best option for risk estimate. The confinement of young steers was the alternative of investment most viable than confinement of steers (NPV ≥ 0 of 80.4 vs. 62.3% in the simulation with correlation, respectively). Sensitivity analysis determined the following items had the greatest impact on the estimate of NPV: prices of fat and thin cattle, initial and final weights, diet costs, minimum rate of attractiveness and diet intake.

Highlights

Among the alternatives used for finishing of beef cattle, the use of feedlot represents an interesting option because of its direct and indirect benefits to the production system as a whole
Considering that the carcasses present minimum weight and minimum backfat thickness, there is no restriction concerning the slaughter age, on the contrary, there are benefits especially regarding the tenderness of the meat, which is significantly improved in younger animals, as shown by Vaz et al (1999)
The young steers displayed the lowest minimum values, this statistic may be used as an additional criterion in decision making, where in this study, lower minimum values indicate a lower risk by the possibility of lower occurrence of negative values

Summary

Introduction

Among the alternatives used for finishing of beef cattle, the use of feedlot represents an interesting option because of its direct and indirect benefits to the production system as a whole. In the southern region, there is a predominance of european breeds, as well consumer market most rigorous in relation to the quality of the final product, being common the slaughter of younger animals, characterized as steer - slaughtered at around 24 months of age, or yearling - slaughtered at about 14 to months of age. Considering that the carcasses present minimum weight (over 180 kg BW) and minimum backfat thickness (over 3 mm), there is no restriction concerning the slaughter age, on the contrary, there are benefits especially regarding the tenderness of the meat, which is significantly improved in younger animals, as shown by Vaz et al (1999). What happens when the slaughter age is reduced is the intensification of the production system, requiring an increase to some degree of invested resources. Techniques aiming to predict the viability of the investment, as well as statistics related to the risk/uncertainty are fundamental, shedding light on decision making

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