Use of systems analysis to develop plant disease models based on literature data: grape black-rot as a case-study

Abstract

The available knowledge on black-rot of grape was retrieved from literature, analyzed, and synthesized to develop a mechanistic model of the life cycle of the pathogen (Guignardia bidwelii) based on the systems analysis. Three life-cycle compartments were defined: (i) production and maturation of inoculum in overwintered sources (i.e., ascospores from pseudothecia and conidia from pycnidia in berry mummies and cane lesions); (ii) infection caused by ascospores and conidia; and (iii) disease onset and production of secondary inoculum. An analysis of published, quantitative information was conducted to develop a mechanistic model driven by weather and vine phenology; equations were developed for ascospore and conidial maturation in overwintered fruiting bodies, spore release and survival, infection occurrence and severity, incubation and latency periods, onset of lesions, production of pycnidia, and infectious periods. The model was then evaluated for its ability to represent the real system and its usefulness for understanding black-rot epidemics by using three typical epidemics. Finally, weaknesses in our knowledge are discussed. Additional research is needed concerning the influence of wetness duration and temperature on infection by ascospores, production dynamics of pycnidia and conidia in black-rot lesions, and the dynamics of conidia exudation from pycnidia.