Abstract
The paper discusses the technology of designing a monitoring system for power transformers and power supply devices, based on the use of sensor networks, describes the creation of a Bayesian network to predict the probability of failure. Conditions for achieving the maximum diagnostic efficiency with the required accuracy are formulated. A diagnostic system is proposed that allows assessing the influence of each parameter on the accuracy of predicting failures. Using the method of expert assessments, the possibility to calculate the probabilities of failures with a lack of information is shown.
Highlights
From 2011 to 2019, electricity consumption in transformer systems is growing at an outstripping pace
Ongoing research in the field of monitoring the state of power transformers is associated with determining the optimal number of diagnosed parameters, choosing the structure of the diagnostic system, sensors, system of collecting, processing, analyzing information from installed sensors and choosing a mathematical apparatus for predicting the state of power equipment
The model allows, relying on the weather forecast, to calculate the probability of failurefree operation of transformers, to make a decision on the need to increase the availability of service personnel, on the need to reduce the load, etc., to prevent possible failures
Summary
From 2011 to 2019, electricity consumption in transformer systems is growing at an outstripping pace. A similar situation is observed in the energy systems of other countries with a developed railway network, such as China, Japan, and the EEC countries. Modern approaches to monitoring the state of power transformers are based on measurement processing methods that allow monitoring the dynamics of change and target values of parameters characterizing the state of the active part of the transformer oil, switches in the tank of the voltage control device under load (CUL), transformer oil, high-voltage inputs and other auxiliary equipment. Ongoing research in the field of monitoring the state of power transformers is associated with determining the optimal number of diagnosed parameters, choosing the structure of the diagnostic system, sensors, system of collecting, processing, analyzing information from installed sensors and choosing a mathematical apparatus for predicting the state of power equipment
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