Use of regionalisation approach to develop fire frequency curves for Victoria, Australia

Abstract

It is important to perform fire frequency analysis to obtain fire frequency curves (FFC) based on fire intensity at different parts of Victoria. In this paper fire frequency curves (FFCs) were derived based on forest fire danger index (FFDI). FFDI is a measure related to fire initiation, spreading speed and containment difficulty. The mean temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and areal extent of open water (LC2) during summer months (Dec–Feb) were identified as the most important parameters for assessing the risk of occurrence of bushfire. Based on these parameters, Andrews’ curve equation was applied to 40 selected meteorological stations to identify homogenous stations to form unique clusters. A methodology using peak FFDI from cluster averaged FFDIs was developed by applying Log Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution to generate FFCs. A total of nine homogeneous clusters across Victoria were identified, and subsequently their FFC’s were developed in order to estimate the regionalised fire occurrence characteristics.