Abstract

ABSTRACT Measurement and verification (M&V) is a critical element of an energy savings performance contract (ESPC)—without M&V, there is no way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in fact being realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC, there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms of measurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically, M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgment and experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis (QUA). This article describes the results of a pilot project initiated by the Department of Energy's Federal Energy Management Program to explore the use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty and thereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intent was to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty without the burden of a comprehensive “bottoms-up” QUA. This ...

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