Use of Monte Carlo method to estimate subsystem redesign risk for complex products: aircraft redesign case study

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to achieve the capability of redesigning complex products system with enhanced efficiency and effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – It is noted that, by changing one subsystem in a complex product design architecture, the change effects can be propagated to other subsystems through their interrelationships. This condition has to be taken into account when deciding on which subsystems to be modified in the redesign plan because the subsequent effects might be too risky for the development process. Estimating redesign risk for complex product architectures is not an easy task, thus designers often need a decision-making aid to efficiently select the best “change initiating” subsystems. This can be done by providing the designers with a ranking of subsystems based on their estimated redesign risk. Moreover, this decision-making process is taking place during early redesign stages whereby the uncertainties related to the actual level and type of changes to be made...