Use of models for integrated assessment of ecosystem health

Abstract

An argument is presented for a greater use of numerical models in integrated assessment of ecosystem health. Ecosystem health has many facets which are interconnected and interact, and which can only be measured in integrated assessments. Modelling is an essential feature of integrated assessment being one of the few ways human groups can form a consensus understanding of the complex dynamics which occur. Functional assumptions are made explicit. The argument is expanded in response to a series of key questions: What is ecosystem health? How do we do integrated assessments? What is modelling? What are some successful examples? What should one conclude? The answers are illustrated with references to the International Joint Commission's program to develop and implement Remedial Action Plans for the Great Lakes' Areas of Concern, particularly in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Three recommendations are offered: (i) Increase the use of models, (ii) Build models with existing data and hypotheses before initiating new programs, and (iii) Allow for iterative model development but be prepared to build a new model when a new problem arises.