Use of Modeling to Enhance the Microbiological Safety of the Food System

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The use of modeling techniques for safety and risk prediction in the food supply is strongly supported by the incidence of foodborne outbreaks worldwide. In microbiological food safety, important parameters include incidence, microbial growth, microbial inactivation or survival, and dose response of the host. The goals of the modeler should include (1) identifying possible inputs and outputs for a particular concern and (2) choosing factors for integration into a larger, overall model. A case study of ground beef from the farm to the consumer reviews multiple points of concern where relevant parameters for Escherichia coli O157:H7 can be modeled. The prevalence and concentration of E. coli O157:H7 in cattle have been confirmed and studies have explored various feeding regimens and hide‐cleaning methods for controlling the pathogen prior to slaughter. There is significant impact of incidence and cross‐contamination during slaughter operations. Intervention methods such as washing and heat treatments and proper carcass handling may reduce the contamination level. Microbial growth in meat products can be extensive, given the possibility of temperature abuse during transportation and storage. Dose–response models for susceptible consumers provide a safety perspective for quantitative microbial models. Growth prediction and lethality models, available online, are valuable tools for both researchers and processors. The goal of the processor should be the “highest reduction possible” (to meet adequate safety requirements) prior to the preparation of raw product. The researcher must continually question the use of a model and the availability of data to validate any conclusions.